The ongoing defense conundrum between the United States and Türkiye has reached a critical juncture with a new proposal reportedly tabled during discussions between high-level U.S. and Turkish officials. The United States is now offering Türkiye a potential pathway back into the F-35 fighter jet program in exchange for handing over control of its Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

This proposal highlights the deep strain caused by Türkiye’s acquisition of the S-400 systems and the complex diplomatic and defense implications that followed.

The F-35 Program and Türkiye’s Expulsion

Türkiye, once a key player in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, was removed from the initiative in 2019 after it took delivery of the Russian S-400 missile systems. The U.S. objected to the integration of the S-400 into NATO’s defense infrastructure, citing concerns that the advanced Russian radar systems could compromise the security of the F-35s, which represent the U.S.'s most sophisticated fighter technology. The dispute triggered broader sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), significantly affecting bilateral defense relations between the two NATO allies.

Despite the initial hard stance from both sides, new reports suggest that the U.S. has offered a solution that would allow Türkiye to keep the S-400s within its territory, but under American control. The proposal involves transferring the S-400 systems to the U.S.-controlled sector of Incirlik Airbase, a critical U.S. and NATO installation located in southern Türkiye. This approach would allow Türkiye to retain formal possession of the system while mitigating U.S. security concerns.

A "Soft Deactivation" Approach

The suggested "soft deactivation" of the S-400s is seen as a middle-ground solution. Under this plan, Türkiye would avoid violating its contract with Russia, as the missile systems would remain physically within its borders, but with their operational control ceded to the U.S. This proposal is strategically crafted to address the national and international complexities involved, allowing Türkiye to save face on the international stage while making progress toward its goal of rejoining the F-35 program.

U.S. officials, including Celeste Wallander from the Department of Defense and Michael Carpenter, a senior advisor at the National Security Council, presented this proposal during discussions with Turkish counterparts in July 2024. The talks have reportedly centered around how to reconcile the need for cooperation within NATO while balancing Türkiye’s defense relations with Russia.

Turkish Response: A Hesitant Reception

While the U.S. has demonstrated a willingness to find creative solutions, the Turkish response has so far been lukewarm. Sources close to the discussions suggest that Turkish officials, including President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are not enthusiastic about relinquishing control of the S-400s. One counteroffer reportedly proposed by Türkiye involved storing the S-400 systems "in their boxes" and allowing periodic U.S. inspections, a solution that would allow Ankara to retain sovereignty over its military assets.

Moreover, the Turkish government has also raised concerns about the broader impact of this arrangement on its defense strategy. The ongoing regional security challenges, particularly those involving neighboring Greece, have made it crucial for Türkiye to maintain a strong air defense capability. Given that Greece has already ordered the F-35s, Turkish officials are wary of falling behind in terms of air power parity. Without access to the F-35 program, Türkiye risks leaving a strategic gap in its air force capabilities.

Future Prospects: Can the U.S.-Turkey Standoff Be Resolved?

The current state of negotiations points to a delicate balance between progress and stalemate. Despite Türkiye's apparent reluctance to fully relinquish the S-400s, the fact that both sides are still engaging in discussions suggests that a resolution is still possible. The U.S. appears to be willing to ease some of the CAATSA sanctions if Türkiye agrees to the proposed deal, signaling a potential thaw in the tense relationship.

As talks are expected to continue during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly, the issue remains a critical stumbling block in U.S.-Turkey relations. Whether a compromise can be reached will depend largely on how both sides manage their respective security concerns and domestic political pressures. The outcome of these talks could have far-reaching implications not only for the F-35 program but also for NATO’s cohesion and the future of U.S.-Türkiye defense ties.

TCE Conclusion

The U.S. proposal to assume control of Türkiye’s Russian-made S-400s marks a significant development in a long-standing diplomatic standoff. While Türkiye’s hesitation to fully accept the terms of the deal reflects its strategic priorities and regional security concerns, the ongoing negotiations signal that both sides are interested in finding a solution. For Türkiye, regaining access to the F-35 program is crucial for maintaining its air force superiority, especially in the context of its regional rivalry with Greece. As the discussions evolve, the outcome could reshape the dynamics of U.S.-Turkey defense relations and set the stage for future cooperation or continued discord.

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References:

Turkish Minute, September 2024. "US seeks control of Russian S-400s in exchange for Turkey’s return to F-35 program."  
Defense Mirror, September 2024. "Turkey Could Transfer Russian S-400s to U.S. Control and Re-enter F-35 Program."  
Al-Monitor, September 2024. "Four factors driving Turkey's calculus to trade Russian S-400s for US F-35."  
Duvar English, September 2024. "US asks Turkey to store Russian S-400s at Incirlik Base to rejoin F-35 program."