Deadlock Before It Begins: Why the Geneva Cyprus Talks Are Doomed to Fail

Once again, the Greek Cypriot leadership demonstrates its determination to maintain the status quo, blocking any genuine pathways to peace by refusing to acknowledge Turkish Cypriot sovereignty. The United Nations has called an informal gathering of Greek and Turkish Cypriots, along with stakeholders Türkiye, Britain, and Greece, in Geneva on 17-18 March to discuss a way forward in breaking a deadlock in talks that stalled in 2017.

However, the recent assertion by Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides that any resolution must align with United Nations (UN) resolutions underscores the rigid and exclusionary approach of the Greek Cypriot side. “Our goal is one: to resume talks from where they left off … on the basis of the agreed UN framework. We are not discussing anything else,” Christodoulides told journalists in Nicosia, Cyprus’s ethnically split capital.

This stance is not one of compromise but of complete dismissal of Turkish Cypriot aspirations for sovereign equality. Instead of fostering an open and fair negotiation process, the Greek Cypriot leadership continues to insist on a framework that inherently denies Turkish Cypriots an equal voice.

The UN Resolutions: A Tool of Entrenchment

For decades, the UN has promoted a bizonal, bicommunal federation as the only solution to the Cyprus issue. However, this model has proven ineffective, as negotiations have repeatedly collapsed due to the Greek Cypriots' refusal to genuinely share power. The insistence on this outdated framework serves only to entrench the status quo, where the Greek Cypriot administration is internationally recognized while the Turkish Cypriots remain marginalized. The so-called ‘UN framework’ has, in reality, functioned as a diplomatic tool to reinforce Greek Cypriot hegemony rather than facilitate a fair settlement.

The Stalemate of Negotiations

The last significant attempt at reunification occurred in 2017 in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, where talks collapsed due to irreconcilable differences. The Greek Cypriot side's insistence on a framework that effectively perpetuates the status quo has been a significant barrier to progress. The upcoming informal talks in Geneva, scheduled for March 17-18, 2025, offer a renewed opportunity to address these issues. Yet, the insistence on adhering strictly to past UN resolutions without accommodating the evolving realities and aspirations of both communities may hinder meaningful progress.

The EU’s Double Standards and Bias

The European Union (EU) has further exacerbated this imbalance by unilaterally accepting the Greek Cypriot side as the legitimate government of Cyprus in 2004, despite the fact that Turkish Cypriots overwhelmingly supported the UN-backed Annan Plan for reunification while Greek Cypriots rejected it. This decision exposed the EU's bias, as it rewarded intransigence and effectively sanctioned the continued isolation of Turkish Cypriots.

Instead of acting as a neutral arbiter, the EU has aligned itself with Greek Cypriot interests, ensuring that Turkish Cypriots remain politically and economically disadvantaged. The bloc’s refusal to lift embargoes on the TRNC or acknowledge its sovereignty has only deepened mistrust and made a negotiated settlement even more difficult. If the EU genuinely seeks a fair resolution, it must acknowledge the Turkish Cypriot people's right to self-determination and cease its one-sided approach.

The Turkish Cypriot Stand: Sovereignty Before Negotiation

President Ersin Tatar has made it abundantly clear that any future negotiations must be based on sovereign equality. This is not an unreasonable demand—it is the foundation of any fair and lasting solution. Without recognition of the TRNC’s equal status, negotiations will remain an exercise in futility, with the Greek Cypriots dictating terms and expecting Turkish Cypriots to accept a diminished role.

Decades of failed talks have demonstrated that the Greek Cypriot side has no incentive to compromise as long as they are recognized as the sole government of the island. Their continued insistence on a ‘federal solution’ is nothing more than a strategy to absorb Turkish Cypriots into a system where they will always be a minority without real political power. This is why Turkish Cypriots, under Tatar’s leadership, have shifted towards a two-state solution, demanding recognition and equal status before returning to the negotiating table.

Despite this firm position, the Turkish Cypriot side has demonstrated goodwill by agreeing to participate in the upcoming Geneva talks. This decision reflects a genuine desire to break the longstanding deadlock and move beyond the entrenched status quo. However, past experiences have shown that without mutual recognition of sovereignty, such dialogues risk being unproductive.​

The divergence in positions has been evident to international observers. Former UN Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, appointed in January 2024, acknowledged the lack of common ground between the parties. In her parting letter, she emphasized the need to "think differently" to find a viable solution to the Cyprus problem. This sentiment highlights the challenges faced by mediators in reconciling the opposing stances of the two sides.

As the international community, including the current UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, continues efforts to facilitate dialogue, the core issue remains: the Greek Cypriot leadership's refusal to recognize Turkish Cypriot sovereignty. This intransigence not only hampers progress but also perpetuates the unjust isolation of the Turkish Cypriot people.

The Path Forward: A New Approach or Continued Deadlock?

If the international community is serious about solving the Cyprus issue, it must abandon its outdated and unfair approach. The TRNC has existed for over 40 years, functioning as a self-sustaining state with its own government, economy, and institutions. Ignoring this reality only prolongs the deadlock. Recognizing the Turkish Cypriots' right to sovereign equality is the only way forward.

Without such recognition, any negotiation efforts will be doomed to fail, as they will simply reinforce the current imbalances rather than address them. The international community, including the UN and EU, must acknowledge their past mistakes and adopt a new, more balanced strategy—one that does not treat Turkish Cypriots as second-class citizens on their own island.

TCE Conclusion

The latest remarks by the Greek Cypriot leader reaffirm that negotiations based on UN resolutions are a non-starter. These resolutions have been used as a tool to maintain the status quo, ensuring that Turkish Cypriots remain politically sidelined. President Ersin Tatar’s insistence on sovereign equality is not an obstructionist stance—it is a call for fundamental fairness. If a genuine solution is ever to be found, the world must stop treating the Cyprus issue as a matter of ‘reunification on Greek Cypriot terms’ and start recognizing the legitimate rights and sovereignty of Turkish Cypriots.

References

• Reuters. "Cyprus leader says any deal on island must align with UN resolutions." March 5, 2025.

• AP News. "Ethnically split Cyprus' rival leaders say they're ready for UN-led meeting to restart peace talks." February 12, 2025.

• Wikipedia. "Cyprus problem." Last modified March 3, 2025.

• Wikipedia. "Two-state solution (Cyprus)." Last modified February 28, 2025.

• AP News. "Leaders in ethnically divided Cyprus fail to reach deal on new crossing points." January 20, 2025.