Based on a report from Nordic Monitor, Türkiye has classified Greece and Cyprus as significant security threats, leading to a comprehensive intelligence gathering campaign.

This classification underscores ongoing geopolitical tensions and historical conflicts in the region. This article aims to provide a detailed overview of Türkiye's perspective, emphasizing the Turkish Cypriot narrative and the strategic reasons behind these intelligence efforts.

Intelligence Gathering Strategy

The General Staff Intelligence Directorate (Genelkurmay İstihbarat Başkanlığı) of Türkiye has prioritized collecting intelligence on Greece and Cyprus. This strategy is designed to detect and neutralize threats early by focusing on military, political, and economic activities. The intelligence operations extend beyond wartime, highlighting the importance of maintaining readiness during peacetime.

A classified document outlines a color-coded threat assessment matrix to evaluate risks:

- Green Circle: Normal situation
- Yellow Square: Potential crisis
- Orange Triangle: High risk
- Red Diamond: Imminent threat
- Black Star: Uncertainty due to insufficient information

Currently, Greece is assessed within the yellow square, indicating potential crises, while Cyprus is marked with an orange triangle, signifying higher risks.

Historical Context and Current Developments

The strained relations between Türkiye, Greece, and Cyprus are rooted in historical disputes over territorial waters, airspace, and minority rights. The division of Cyprus remains a particularly contentious issue. 

The Turkish Cypriot Perspective

From the Turkish Cypriot viewpoint, the 1974 intervention by Türkiye was a necessary action to protect their community following a Greek-backed coup aiming to unite Cyprus with Greece. This intervention led to the establishment of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), which is only recognized by Türkiye. Turkish Cypriots argue that prior to the intervention, they faced significant threats, ethnic cleansing and discrimination. They advocate for a two-state solution as a pragmatic approach to ensuring peace and stability on the island.

Greek and Greek Cypriot Activities

Türkiye's concerns about Greece and Cyprus are not without basis. Greece has significantly upgraded its military capabilities and formed strategic alliances with countries such as France and the United States, often conducting military exercises near Turkish borders. Cyprus, meanwhile, has pursued hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, frequently in disputed waters, which Türkiye argues ignores the rights of Turkish Cypriots.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ongoing Tensions

Despite these tensions, diplomatic efforts continue. High-level meetings between Turkish and Greek, leaders aim to address these disputes. However, fundamental disagreements, particularly regarding Cyprus, remain unresolved.

Türkiye continues to advocate for international recognition of the KKTC and equitable sharing of resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. This stance is seen as crucial for ensuring the rights and security of Turkish Cypriots, who have long felt marginalized in the geopolitical landscape.

Recent Developments

In recent years, there have been efforts to reset relations. For instance, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis have engaged in dialogue to improve ties. Both leaders have expressed a commitment to resolving differences peacefully and enhancing bilateral cooperation in various sectors, including energy, tourism, and education.

However, the situation remains volatile. Military standoffs, such as those involving the Oruc Reis survey ship and Greek naval forces, highlight the ongoing risks of conflict. The EU and NATO have called for de-escalation and constructive dialogue to prevent further tensions.

Türkiye's identification of Greece and Cyprus as top security threats underscores its commitment to national security and the protection of Turkish Cypriot rights. The comprehensive intelligence framework aims to provide early warnings and ensure preparedness against any potential threats from these neighboring countries.

This proactive stance is essential for maintaining regional stability and addressing longstanding geopolitical challenges. For more detailed information, please refer to the original article on Nordic Monitor.