The recent signing of a defense cooperation roadmap between the United States and the Greek Cypriot administration has raised significant concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Türkiye.

This agreement, forged under the guise of enhancing bilateral relations, reflects a concerning shift in U.S. foreign policy in the region, and risks exacerbating existing tensions rather than fostering peace and stability.

Background of the Agreement

On September 8, 2024, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Celeste Wallander, and the Greek Cypriot Defense Minister, Vassilis Palmas, signed the roadmap in Washington D.C. This roadmap aims to deepen military cooperation between the two sides, building upon a series of defense agreements initiated in recent years. Among these, the most notable is the U.S. decision to lift the arms embargo on the Greek Cypriot administration in 2022, a move that was perceived by many as a direct affront to regional balance.

The roadmap involves various measures, including joint military exercises, enhanced defense communications, and the exchange of intelligence. The U.S. also paired the Greek Cypriot administration with the New Jersey National Guard under the National Guard State Partnership Program. This decision has provoked a sharp response from both Türkiye and the TRNC, who view it as part of a broader agenda to tilt the balance of power against the Turkish Cypriot community.

Implications for Regional Stability

The agreement has significant implications for the fragile stability in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Greek Cypriot administration’s strengthening of military ties with a global superpower like the U.S. is being viewed with suspicion and alarm in the TRNC. As Ersin Tatar, President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, noted, “This deal does not contribute to peace; instead, it adds fuel to an already tense situation, ignoring the rights and sovereignty of the Turkish Cypriot people.”

The TRNC sees this cooperation as a step backward for peace negotiations on the island. Since the 1974 intervention by Türkiye, which acted in response to a Greek-led coup aimed at uniting Cyprus with Greece (Enosis), Cyprus has remained divided between the Turkish North and the Greek South. The TRNC, declared in 1983, remains unrecognized internationally except by Türkiye, which guarantees its security under the Treaty of Guarantee signed in 1960.

“The United States, by engaging in this defense cooperation, undermines its role as an impartial mediator in the Cyprus dispute,” said Kudret Özersay, a former Foreign Minister of the TRNC. “Instead of promoting dialogue, Washington’s actions appear to favor one side over the other, disregarding the Turkish Cypriot community's legitimate rights and claims.”

U.S. Involvement: A Historical Perspective

The U.S.'s recent actions can be traced back to the broader context of its geopolitical strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean. The region is not only strategically important due to its proximity to the Middle East but also because of its rich natural gas reserves, which have become a point of contention among several countries, including Greece, Türkiye, Egypt, and Israel.

Historically, the U.S. has maintained a delicate balance between Greece and Türkiye, both NATO allies, in its dealings in the region. However, in recent years, Washington's tilt toward the Greek Cypriot administration raises questions about its long-term objectives. A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, commented, "Our goal is to ensure stability and deter any aggressor in the region." However, this statement is seen by many Turkish Cypriots as an implicit endorsement of the Greek Cypriot administration's maximalist claims over the island.

Reactions from Türkiye and the TRNC

Türkiye has also condemned the agreement. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “This defense roadmap threatens peace efforts on the island and disregards the political equality of the Turkish Cypriots. The U.S. must reconsider its actions, which only serve to embolden the Greek Cypriot side’s intransigence.” 

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Türkiye reinforced this position by asserting, “Türkiye will continue to stand by the TRNC. We call upon the international community to recognize the realities on the ground and work towards a solution that respects the rights of both communities on the island.”

The TRNC echoes these concerns. Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu stated, “We find it incomprehensible that the U.S., a country that claims to support peace and stability, would engage in actions that favor one party over the other. The Turkish Cypriots have long been marginalized and denied their political rights; this move by the U.S. only adds insult to injury.”

Call for a Balanced Approach

From a Turkish Cypriot perspective, the defense cooperation agreement between the U.S. and the Greek Cypriot administration is not just a bilateral matter; it is a direct challenge to the efforts for a just and lasting peace on the island. “The international community must not turn a blind eye to the rights of the Turkish Cypriots,” said Ersin Tatar. “We call for a balanced approach, one that respects both communities’ equal status and works towards a solution that guarantees the security and rights of all Cypriots.”

A balanced approach would involve the recognition of the TRNC as an equal party in any negotiations and a clear understanding that any move to arm one side will naturally escalate tensions and diminish prospects for a peaceful resolution. The international community, especially influential players like the U.S., should promote dialogue, not division.

TCE Conclusion

In conclusion, the U.S.-Greek Cypriot defense cooperation agreement is a provocative move that undermines the peace process in Cyprus and the broader Eastern Mediterranean. It risks setting back years of diplomatic efforts to find a comprehensive settlement on the island. As the TRNC and Türkiye have rightly pointed out, peace in Cyprus can only be achieved through dialogue and mutual recognition, not through military alliances that favor one side over the other. The international community must take heed and ensure that future actions contribute to stability and peace rather than conflict and division.

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References:

- "US, Greek Cypriot administration ink defense cooperation plan." Daily Sabah, 2024. 
- Statements from TRNC President Ersin Tatar and Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu.
- Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Release, 2024.