Türkiye Eyes Strategic Membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Türkiye's interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a strategic move reflecting its aim to diversify economic and geopolitical partnerships amidst a shifting global landscape. Here’s a deeper look into the various aspects of this interest and its implications.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

The SCO, established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, aims to foster mutual trust and neighborly relations among member states, enhance cooperation in politics, trade, economy, and culture, and maintain regional peace, security, and stability. The addition of India and Pakistan in 2017 elevated its geopolitical importance.

Türkiye's Motivation to Join

Economic Diversification

- Access to New Markets: The SCO member states encompass a substantial market, covering a significant portion of the world’s population and economy. By joining the SCO, Türkiye can tap into these markets, which is crucial given its current economic challenges and strained relations with some Western countries.

- Trade Relationships: Diversifying trade partnerships through the SCO can mitigate Türkiye's economic vulnerabilities by reducing reliance on traditional Western markets.

Geopolitical Strategy

- Strengthening Geopolitical Standing: Joining the SCO aligns with President Erdoğan’s vision of an independent and multi-directional foreign policy. It enables Türkiye to bolster its geopolitical influence by engaging with major global powers like China and Russia.

- Reducing Western Dependence: This move allows Türkiye to balance its relations between Western alliances (NATO) and emerging Eastern alliances, showcasing a more balanced geopolitical stance.

Energy Security

- Access to Energy Resources: The SCO includes some of the world's largest energy producers. Closer ties with these nations can enhance Türkiye's energy security by ensuring a steady supply of oil and gas.

De-Dollarization and Economic Realignments

The trend towards de-dollarization is a response to various geopolitical and economic factors:

1. US Sanctions and Trade Policies

- Seeking Alternatives: Countries are increasingly looking to reduce dependence on the US dollar to avoid the impact of US sanctions. Russia and China, for instance, are promoting the use of their currencies in bilateral trade to bypass the dollar.

2. Emerging Financial Systems

- New Payment Mechanisms: Systems like China's CIPS and the digital yuan offer alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT system, facilitating international trade without relying on the US dollar.

3. Gold and Silver as Safe Havens

- Stability in Uncertainty: Amid economic uncertainties, there is a growing preference for gold and silver as stable stores of value, reflecting concerns about the stability of fiat currencies and the global financial system.

Implications for NATO and Global Alliances

Türkiye's potential SCO membership could lead to frictions within NATO, as it signifies a pivot towards deeper relations with countries often seen as adversaries by the Western alliance. This shift exemplifies a broader trend of nations balancing their alliances to hedge against the uncertainties of a multipolar world.

Complex Balancing Act

Türkiye's aspirations to join the SCO come amid ongoing tensions with the West. As a NATO member, Türkiye's move towards the SCO could complicate its diplomatic relations. President Erdoğan's appearance at SCO meetings, particularly his interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, highlights the delicate balance Türkiye is trying to maintain. Erdoğan's diplomatic strategy seeks to enhance Türkiye's global influence while navigating its economic and security interests between East and West.

Türkiye's relationship with the EU has been strained, with Ankara expressing disappointment over the lack of progress in EU accession talks. This frustration has pushed Erdoğan to explore alternative alliances, signaling a potential shift away from the West. However, this move is not without risks, as Türkiye's economy remains heavily intertwined with Western markets.

Electoral Considerations

Domestically, Erdoğan's pivot towards the SCO is also seen as a strategy to bolster his political standing ahead of elections. By showcasing Türkiye's ability to forge independent foreign policy paths, Erdoğan aims to appeal to nationalist and Eurasianist sentiments within the country. This maneuver reflects a broader transformation in Türkiye's domestic politics, where support from nationalists and anti-Western factions has become increasingly important.

Türkiye’s bid to join the SCO and the global trend of de-dollarization highlight significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. As countries adapt to these changes, strategies focused on economic resilience and geopolitical autonomy are becoming increasingly prevalent. This dynamic realignment will continue to shape global alliances and economic policies in the coming years.

References

1. Council on Foreign Relations

2. Deutsche Welle

3. Al Jazeera

4. Brookings

5. Foreign Policy

6. BBC

7. Reuters

8. Forbes

9. The New Arab