The relationship between the UK and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is witnessing a significant shift, particularly in light of the upcoming general election.

Recent developments have shown increased support from UK MPs and Lords, advocating for the end of TRNC's isolation and recognition of their sovereignty.

Cross-Party Support for Direct Flights

A prominent development in May 2024 saw a cross-party group of 50 influential politicians, including Labour's Jack Straw and Conservative Iain Duncan Smith, urging the UK to allow direct flights to the TRNC. This call aims to lift the restrictive ban on direct flights to Ercan International Airport, easing travel burdens on Turkish Cypriots and British expats in Northern Cyprus.

Advocacy from Baroness Mobarik

Baroness Mobarik, a Conservative life peer, has been a staunch advocate for the TRNC. Her recent visit to Northern Cyprus highlighted the detrimental effects of ongoing embargoes. Mobarik has been vocal about the need to facilitate direct trade and travel between the UK and the TRNC, emphasizing the importance of ending these restrictions.

Protests and Political Engagement

Turkish Cypriots in London have actively protested against their continued isolation. Organizations like Embargoed and the British Turkish Cypriot Association have staged demonstrations, demanding recognition and fair treatment. These protests have gained support from figures like Piers Corbyn, who criticized the British government's historical failures regarding Turkish Cypriots.

TRNC President Ersin Tatar's Calls for Recognition

TRNC President Ersin Tatar has been advocating for a two-state solution and has had positive talks with UK officials, including former Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Europe Minister Wendy Morton. Tatar emphasizes the need for the UK to support the TRNC's bid for recognition, especially after Brexit.

Impact of the Upcoming General Election

The general election scheduled for July 4, 2024, is set to be a critical juncture for UK-TRNC relations. Current polling data suggests a significant lead for the Labour Party. According to Electoral Calculus, Labour is predicted to secure a majority with 39.7% of the vote, translating to approximately 331 seats. This overwhelming lead is supported by various polls, indicating a strong likelihood of Labour forming the next government.

Potential Impact of a Labour Government

If Labour wins the general election, the implications for the TRNC could be substantial. Historically, Labour's foreign policy has been more focused on broad regional stability rather than specific support for the TRNC. However, with key figures like Jack Straw within the party advocating for Turkish Cypriot rights, there could be potential for a shift towards more supportive policies.

David Lammy, the Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, has faced criticism from the Turkish Cypriot community for being "too busy" to meet with their representatives. Lammy's engagement with the TRNC has been perceived as insufficient, and his recent meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in March 2024 underscores the UK's need to maintain strong ties with Turkey. If Lammy continues to neglect the Turkish Cypriot community, it could hinder the potential for positive change under a Labour government. 

On the other hand, Labour's need for a stable relationship with Turkey might prompt Lammy to reconsider his stance. The strategic importance of Turkey in regional politics and security could incentivize Labour to adopt a more balanced approach that includes recognizing the rights and aspirations of Turkish Cypriots.

TCE Conclusion

The growing support for the TRNC among UK MPs and Lords, combined with the upcoming general election, presents a pivotal moment for UK-TRNC relations. With Labour poised to win a significant majority, the future of this relationship could see positive changes, particularly if influential figures within the party continue to advocate for the rights and recognition of Turkish Cypriots. As the political landscape evolves, the TRNC's efforts to gain international recognition and end its isolation may find new allies in the UK government. However, the role of key figures like David Lammy will be crucial in determining the extent of Labour's support for the TRNC.