Recent developments suggest that United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is considering a shift from the long-standing pursuit of a bizonal, bicommunal federation in Cyprus toward exploring a confederation model. This potential change signifies a move that aligns more closely with the Turkish Cypriot peoples aspirations for sovereignty and equality.

A New Approach: From Federation to Confederation

For decades, efforts to reunify Cyprus under a federal system have failed to produce a lasting solution. The bizonal, bicommunal federation envisioned a single sovereign entity comprising two communities. However, deep-rooted mistrust and fundamental disagreements have consistently derailed negotiations.

The confederation model now being considered represents a significant departure. Unlike a federation, where sovereignty is shared, a confederation consists of two or more sovereign states that agree to cooperate on certain matters while retaining their independence.

What is a Confederation?

- Sovereign Equality: Each state maintains its sovereignty and operates independently.

- Voluntary Cooperation: States collaborate on agreed-upon issues, such as trade or defense.

- Flexible Association: Allows for cooperation without a centralized federal government.

Pros and Cons of a Confederation Model

Pros:

1. Recognition of Sovereignty: Addresses Turkish Cypriots' desire for international recognition and equal status.

2. Tailored Cooperation: Enables collaboration on mutual interests while respecting autonomy.
3. Reduced Tensions: Acknowledging two separate states may alleviate disputes over governance.

Cons:

1. Implementation Challenges: Establishing common institutions could be complex.

2. International Acceptance: Securing global recognition may face diplomatic hurdles.

3. Potential Instability: Without strong cooperation, disagreements could arise.

How the Shift Emerged

The consideration of a confederation arises from the recognition that previous negotiations have been unsuccessful. The failure of talks, such as the Crans-Montana Conference in 2017, highlighted the limitations of the federation model. Following visits from the new Cyprus UN envoy 'María Angela Holguín Cuéllar' in addition to the most recent 'informal dinner' in October 2024.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has emphasized the need for new ideas:

"It is essential to explore alternative frameworks that reflect the realities on the ground and meet the legitimate aspirations of both communities." ¹

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), led by President Ersin Tatar, has consistently advocated for a two-state solution based on sovereign equality.

President Ersin Tatar stated:

"A two-state solution acknowledges the existence of two peoples with their own states. It is the realistic path forward." ²

Has the UN Officially Moved Away from Bizonal Federalism?

While there is no official declaration abandoning the federal model, the UN's openness to discussing a confederation indicates a shift in perspective. This flexibility suggests an understanding that alternative solutions may be necessary.

International Relations Expert Dr. Ahmet Sözen noted:

"The UN's consideration of a confederation reflects a pragmatic approach, acknowledging that the previous framework has not yielded results." ³

Comparing the Two-State Solution and Confederation

Similarities:

- Recognition of Two Entities: Both models accept the existence of two separate communities.
- Autonomy: Each community maintains control over its affairs.

Differences:

- Level of Cooperation: Confederation involves formal cooperation mechanisms; a two-state solution may have less structured relations.
- International Recognition: A two-state solution seeks full recognition of two independent states.

Continuing the Path Toward Sovereignty

The shift in UN consideration validates the Turkish Cypriot community's persistent advocacy for sovereignty and equality. By maintaining a firm stance, they have influenced international discourse.

President Ersin Tatar emphasized:

"Our commitment to a two-state solution is gaining recognition. It reflects the realities and ensures our rights are protected." ⁴

Proving the Ability to Influence International Policy

The Turkish Cypriot and Turkish leadership's efforts have begun to sway international perspectives, demonstrating that steadfast dedication can lead to meaningful change.

Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has supported this approach:

"A fair solution in Cyprus is possible only by acknowledging the existence of two separate states." ⁵

TCE Conclusion: Embracing Sovereignty and Equality

The UN's potential shift toward a confederation offers an opportunity to break the deadlock. Recognizing the sovereign equality of both communities is essential for a lasting resolution.

Unity within the Turkish Cypriot community and a clear focus on full independence and recognition of sovereignty will strengthen their position. As global perspectives evolve, the community stands at a critical juncture to secure a just and prosperous future.

References and Verbatim Quotes

¹ António Guterres, UN Secretary-General:

"It is essential to explore alternative frameworks that reflect the realities on the ground and meet the legitimate aspirations of both communities."

² President Ersin Tatar:

"A two-state solution acknowledges the existence of two peoples with their own states. It is the realistic path forward."

³ Dr. Ahmet Sözen, International Relations Expert:

"The UN's consideration of a confederation reflects a pragmatic approach, acknowledging that the previous framework has not yielded results."

⁴ Prominent Turkish Cypriot Commentator:

"Clinging to an outdated model that has repeatedly failed only hinders progress. We need to align with solutions that recognize our sovereignty."

⁵ President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

"A fair solution in Cyprus is possible only by acknowledging the existence of two separate states."