Choices of Friends, Choices of Foes, an old Turkish proverb resonates in the corridors of geopolitics: "Türkün dostu ancak Türk’tür" — the Turk’s only friend is another Turk. The recent signing of a military action plan among Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia reinforces this age-old wisdom. These three nations, historically aligned in their antagonism toward Türkiye, are drawing geopolitical lines that speak volumes.

Against the backdrop of Türkiye's strategic importance and the recent triumph of Azerbaijan, Türkiye’s ally, over Armenia in Karabağ, this alliance underscores a growing regional polarization.

The Alliance: A Union Rooted in Anti-Turkish Sentiment

Signed in Athens on December 27, 2024, the military action plan, officially titled the "Trilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement," formalizes an ongoing collaboration between Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia. According to officials, the plan focuses on joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and operational coordination. Ostensibly framed as a step toward regional stability, this alliance emerges as a thinly veiled counterweight to Türkiye's influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus.

These nations share a history of animosity toward Türkiye. Greece and the Greek Cypriots have long pursued policies that marginalize Turkish Cypriots and seek to weaken Türkiye’s role as a guarantor in Cyprus. Armenia, freshly reeling from its decisive defeat in Karabağ in 2023, when Azerbaijan, with Türkiye’s critical support, reclaimed its territorial land from Armenia, has found ideological allies in Athens and Nicosia.

Karabağ and the Fractured Caucasus: A Turning Point

The recent liberation of Karabağ by Azerbaijan, concluded in  2023, marked a pivotal moment for Türkiye’s regional standing. Azerbaijan, fortified by Türkiye's military and strategic assistance, demonstrated the effectiveness of Turkish drones, tactics, and diplomacy. The swift victory, which officially ended with the signing of a ceasefire on November 10, 2023, not only redefined power dynamics in the Caucasus but also exposed Armenia’s vulnerability and the limits of its alliances.

In this context, Armenia’s alignment with Greece and Cyprus is as much about shared interests as it is about shared grievances. Unable to counter Türkiye directly, these nations are using their newfound trilateral pact as a platform to project strength and signal their opposition to Türkiye's growing influence.

Implications for the TRNC: A Stark Reminder of Isolation

For the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), this alliance is yet another reminder of the international community's persistent disregard for its security and sovereignty. The TRNC, already marginalized by the Greek Cypriot-controlled Greek Side and their European backers, now faces the added challenge of a militarized neighbor to the south forming alliances that explicitly exclude Turkish Cypriots.

This exclusion further solidifies the need for Turkish Cypriots to rely on Türkiye as their guarantor and ally. Just as Türkiye stood by Azerbaijan in Karabağ, it remains the sole protector of Turkish Cypriot rights in the face of growing regional hostility.

Türkiye's Role: Standing Firm Against Adversaries

Türkiye’s strategic positioning as a regional power ensures it cannot ignore the implications of this alliance. Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia have consistently sought to limit Türkiye’s influence, whether by lobbying against its maritime rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, opposing its legitimate intervention in Cyprus under the Treaty of Guarantee, or aligning with other anti-Turkish blocs in Europe and beyond.

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) serves as a vital unifying force among Turkic nations. This alliance not only strengthens regional cooperation but also offers a robust framework for addressing shared challenges. By fostering economic, cultural, and security ties, the OTS underscores the importance of solidarity in countering exclusionary alliances like the one between Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia. Notably, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is an observer member of the OTS, highlighting the alliance's inclusive approach toward Turkic communities and its commitment to supporting their sovereignty and development.

Yet Türkiye’s resilience is evident. From bolstering Azerbaijan’s military capabilities to modernizing its own armed forces, Türkiye continues to demonstrate that it is not a nation to be underestimated. Furthermore, Türkiye has consistently supported the TRNC through economic aid, military collaboration, and diplomatic backing, ensuring the Turkish Cypriots maintain their security and sovereignty despite regional hostilities. This military action plan may attempt to isolate Türkiye, but it also underscores the very reason why Türkiye must remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its interests and those of its allies, including the TRNC.

The Broader Picture: A Flawed Vision of Regional Stability

While the Greek Side, Greece, and Armenia champion their alliance as a step toward regional stability, their actions suggest otherwise. True stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus cannot be achieved through exclusionary policies and alliances rooted in historical grudges. By ignoring the rights of Turkish Cypriots and antagonizing Türkiye, these nations are sowing the seeds of further division.

Instead of fostering genuine dialogue and cooperation, such alliances deepen existing fault lines. They dismiss the legitimate concerns of the TRNC, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan, perpetuating a cycle of mistrust and hostility that benefits no one.

TCE Conclusion

The military action plan signed by Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia sends a clear message: Türkiye and the TRNC are excluded from their vision of regional stability. For Turkish Cypriots, this is a stark reminder that their security and sovereignty rest firmly with Türkiye. The exclusionary nature of this alliance reinforces the wisdom of "Türkün dostu ancak Türk’tür"—a truth that resonates as deeply today as ever.

Looking ahead, the Turkish Cypriot people and Türkiye must remain steadfast in their advocacy for justice, sovereignty, and security. The liberation of Turkish Cypriots in 1974 and the more recent Karabağ victory stands as a testament to what unity and determination can achieve in the face of adversity. For the TRNC, the path forward lies in strengthening its ties with Türkiye, leveraging its strategic position, and continuing to demand its rightful place on the international stage.

References

Cyprus Mail. "Cyprus, Greece, Armenia sign military action plan." December 27, 2024.\
Reuters. "Azerbaijan's Karabakh victory: What it means for the Caucasus." October 2023.\
TRT World. "Türkiye's strategic role in the Eastern Mediterranean." November 2024.\
Daily Sabah. "TRNC reiterates call for recognition amid Greek provocations." December 2024.