In a stunning political comeback, Donald Trump has secured a second term as President of the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the November 2024 elections. This development has prompted global discourse on the potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). As stakeholders assess the ramifications, it is imperative to explore how a renewed Trump administration might influence these nations.

Renewed Diplomatic Dynamics with Türkiye

During his initial tenure, President Trump maintained a complex yet pragmatic relationship with Türkiye. His personal rapport with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan facilitated direct communication channels, enabling swift negotiations on contentious issues. Notably, Trump's administration imposed sanctions on Türkiye's defense procurement body in 2020 due to Ankara's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems. However, Erdoğan has suggested that a change in the U.S. administration following the November election might benefit Türkiye's defense sector, indicating potential for enhanced cooperation.

Prospects for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

The TRNC has long sought international recognition and support. Trump’s unconventional approach to foreign policy, characterized by transactional diplomacy, could present opportunities for the TRNC to advance its agenda. His administration’s willingness to challenge established norms might lead to increased engagement with the TRNC, potentially bolstering its international standing.

Economic Implications and Trade Relations

Trump’s "America First" policy emphasizes bilateral trade agreements and has previously led to the imposition of tariffs on various nations. For Türkiye, this could mean renegotiating trade deals to secure favorable terms. Given Türkiye's strategic importance and its burgeoning defense industry, there is potential for increased economic collaboration, particularly in defense and technology sectors. However, Trump’s protectionist tendencies may also pose challenges, necessitating adept diplomatic negotiations to safeguard Türkiye's economic interests.

Geopolitical Considerations in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean remains a region of strategic significance, with ongoing disputes over maritime boundaries and energy resources. Trump’s previous administration exhibited a degree of disengagement from multilateral conflicts, opting instead for direct bilateral engagements. This approach could allow Türkiye greater autonomy in pursuing its interests in the region. However, it also requires Türkiye to navigate complex relationships with neighboring countries and balance its assertive policies with diplomatic outreach.

Potential Challenges and Criticisms

While there are potential benefits, a second Trump term is not without challenges for Türkiye and the TRNC. Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts and unilateral decisions could lead to uncertainties. Additionally, his administration’s stance on human rights and democratic values may attract criticism, particularly concerning internal policies within Türkiye. It is crucial for Turkish leadership to anticipate these challenges and prepare strategies to address them effectively.

TCE Conclusion

Donald Trump’s return to the White House heralds a new chapter in U.S.-Türkiye relations. While opportunities for enhanced cooperation and support for the TRNC exist, they are accompanied by potential challenges that require careful navigation. As the global geopolitical landscape evolves, Türkiye’s strategic diplomacy and proactive engagement will be pivotal in leveraging the benefits of this renewed partnership.

References:

 Erdoğan says U.S. election could further boost Türkiye’s defense sector, Reuters