The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has long endured an unjust campaign of economic strangulation and political isolation imposed by the Republic of Cyprus.

The absence of direct flights to the TRNC is a glaring example of this strategy, one that has severely impacted Turkish Cypriots' ability to travel freely and affordably. However, the TRNC has a unique opportunity to respond to these measures with a strategic economic maneuver of its own: imposing a visa fee on Greek Cypriots crossing into the north. This move could not only generate significant revenue for the TRNC but also exert substantial pressure on the Greek Cypriot government, pushing them towards political concessions, including the recognition of direct flights to Ercan Airport.

The Burden of Indirect Flights: A Case of Economic Strangulation

The lack of direct flights to the TRNC is more than just an inconvenience; it is a calculated act of economic strangulation. Turkish Cypriots are forced to fly into Larnaca or Paphos, incurring additional travel costs and facing extended journey times. These indirect routes can add anywhere from 20% to 30% to the overall cost of travel compared to a direct flight to Ercan Airport. This financial burden is compounded by the fact that Turkish Cypriots often have to pay higher prices for accommodations and transportation when transiting through the south.

In 2023, approximately 1.8 million Turkish Cypriots traveled through Larnaca Airport, contributing significantly to the revenue streams of the Republic of Cyprus. These travelers, who are effectively penalized for their political status, are forced to support the very government that seeks to isolate them. This imposed economic dependency is not just unfair; it is a violation of the basic right to freedom of movement and trade.

Revenue Streams for the Republic of Cyprus: A Greek Windfall

The enforced dependency on Greek Cypriot airports has proven to be a financial windfall for the Republic of Cyprus. The revenue streams derived from Turkish Cypriot travelers include:

1. Airport Fees and Charges: Turkish Cypriot travelers contribute significantly to airport fees, including landing charges, passenger taxes, and parking fees. Managed by Hermes Airports, which operates Larnaca and Paphos under a concession agreement with the Republic of Cyprus government, these fees are a substantial source of income for the Greek Cypriot economy.

2. Aviation Taxes: Revenue is further bolstered by aviation taxes, such as passenger air duty and environmental levies, collected by airlines and remitted to the Greek Cypriot government. These taxes alone contribute millions of euros annually to the state’s budget.

3. Tourism Revenue: The Greek Cypriot economy, particularly its tourism sector, has become increasingly reliant on the spending of Turkish Cypriots. While many simply transit through the south, others spend money on accommodations, food, and transportation. In 2023, the Greek Cypriot tourism industry faced a significant €30 million deficit, a stark indicator of the sector’s decline. This shortfall has been exacerbated by the economic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing political instability in the region.

4. Airline Revenue: Airlines serving Greek Cypriot airports profit from ticket sales, baggage fees, and in-flight purchases made by Turkish Cypriot passengers. The Republic of Cyprus benefits indirectly through corporate taxes and service agreements, further enriching the Greek Cypriot economy.

Imposing a Visa Fee: A Strategic Response

Given the financial burden placed on Turkish Cypriots and the windfall for the Greek side, the TRNC must consider a strategic countermeasure: the implementation of a visa fee for Greek Cypriots crossing into the north.

Calculating the Potential Revenue:
Based on recent data, approximately 2,043,555 Greek Cypriots crossed into the TRNC in 2023, averaging around 5,600 crossings per day. By imposing a visa fee of 5 euros for children and 8 euros for adults, the TRNC could generate significant revenue while also applying financial pressure on Greek Cypriots and their government.

• Adults (8 euros per crossing): Assuming 70% of the daily crossings are by adults, that would be around 3,920 crossings. At 8 euros per person, this translates to a daily revenue of €31,360.
• - Children (5 euros per crossing): If 30% of the daily crossings are by children, that would be around 1,680 crossings. At 5 euros per person, this translates to a daily revenue of €8,400.

Total Daily Revenue: Combining both, the TRNC could generate €39,760 per day.
Total Annual Revenue: Over a year, this would amount to approximately €14.5 million.

This revenue could be reinvested into key sectors of the TRNC economy, further strengthening its financial independence and reducing reliance on Greek Cypriot economic activity.

Greek Cypriot Tourism: A Waning Industry

The Greek Cypriot tourism industry has been showing signs of decline, a trend that has been exacerbated by various factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability in Europe, and increasing competition from other Mediterranean destinations. The 2023 €30 million deficit in the tourism sector is a clear indication of these challenges. 

Recent reports suggest that the Greek Cypriot government has been exerting pressure on major tour operators like TUI to avoid promoting the TRNC as a tourist destination. This move, while aimed at stifling tourism in the north, also reveals the Greek side’s desperation to protect its own dwindling tourism revenues. However, these efforts have had limited success, as more travelers are discovering the TRNC as a cost-effective and attractive alternative to the south.

By imposing a visa fee, the TRNC could further weaken the already strained Greek Cypriot tourism industry. This would not only generate substantial revenue for the north but also create additional economic pressure on the Greek Cypriot government, potentially forcing them to reconsider their stance on direct flights to the TRNC.

Turning the Tables: Economic Pressure as a Tool for Political Change

The use of economic pressure to achieve political objectives is not a new strategy; it has been employed successfully in various parts of the world. For example, the United States used economic sanctions against South Africa during the apartheid era, which played a significant role in bringing about political change. Similarly, the European Union has imposed sanctions on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine, aiming to influence Russian policy by targeting its economy.

In the context of Cyprus, the TRNC can employ a similar strategy by imposing a visa fee on Greek Cypriots. This move would not only generate revenue but also serve as a powerful tool to push for political change on the island. By hitting the Greek Cypriot economy where it hurts, the TRNC can force the Republic of Cyprus to reconsider its policy of economic subjugation and move towards a more equitable solution, such as the recognition of direct flights to Ercan Airport.

Lessons from Global Economic Strategies

Throughout history, economic strategies have been used effectively to achieve political goals. In the 1970s, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) used oil embargoes to exert pressure on Western nations, leading to significant shifts in global politics. More recently, economic sanctions have been used by countries like the United States and the European Union to influence the behavior of states like Iran and North Korea.

For the TRNC, imposing a visa fee on Greek Cypriots represents a strategic use of economic power. By creating a financial burden for Greek Cypriots who cross into the north, the TRNC can turn the tables on the Republic of Cyprus, using the same tactics of economic pressure that have been used against them. This approach not only has the potential to generate significant revenue for the TRNC but also to shift the political dynamics on the island, paving the way for a more equitable and sustainable future.

Economic Maneuvers: A Path to Political Leverage

The TRNC’s Minister of Economy and Energy, Olgun Amcaoğlu, has a crucial role to play in this strategy. By implementing economic policies that leverage the TRNC’s position, Amcaoğlu can help create a new dynamic in the ongoing political negotiations. The imposition of a visa fee on Greek Cypriots is just one example of how the TRNC can use economic tools to push for political change.

This strategy would also serve as a clear message to the international community: the TRNC is no longer willing to accept the status quo. By taking a proactive stance and using economic pressure to achieve political goals, the TRNC can assert its right to self-determination and push for the recognition of its sovereignty, including the critical issue of direct flights.

TCE Conclusion: A Call to Action

The imposition of a visa fee on Greek Cypriots crossing into the TRNC is a pragmatic and effective strategy to counter the Republic of Cyprus’s long-standing policy of isolation and economic subjugation. Not only would this measure generate substantial revenue for the TRNC, but it would also apply pressure on the Greek side to reconsider its stance on direct flights and other critical issues.

By leveraging economic tools and strategic diplomacy, the TRNC can push for a future where direct flights to Ercan Airport become a reality, benefiting both Turkish and Greek Cypriots alike. The time has come for the TRNC to turn the tables, using the power of economics to achieve political change and secure a more equitable and prosperous future for its people.

References:

Cyprus Mail
Greek Reporter
* Hermes Airports
* Cyprus Tourism Statistics 2019-2024
* Interviews with Greek Cypriots, TCE (Turkish Cypriot Economic) Report, 2024
* Reports on TUI and other tour operators’ pressure from the Greek Cypriot