The announcement of Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited debates about U.S.-Türkiye relations. Ankara, with its strategic geopolitical role and critical regional ambitions, has expressed a blend of skepticism and cautious optimism about the prospects of collaboration under Trump’s new administration. While there are glimmers of hope for renewed dialogue and economic ties, Türkiye’s leadership remains wary of Washington’s approach to key regional issues. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent invitation to Trump for a state visit underscores the complexities of the relationship. It signals Ankara’s intent to stabilize ties but reflects the apprehensions that persist over U.S. policies on defense, trade, and regional security. As Turkish Cypriots closely monitor developments, the implications of this relationship extend far beyond the borders of Türkiye, impacting the future of Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Historical Strains in U.S.-Türkiye Relations

The relationship between the United States and Türkiye has endured significant challenges in recent years, particularly during Trump’s first term. The imposition of sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in response to Türkiye’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system marked a low point in bilateral ties. Ankara’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program further deepened the rift, leaving Türkiye to explore alternatives in its defense strategy.

These measures, seen as heavy-handed by Turkish officials, highlighted a lack of understanding of Ankara’s security concerns. As a NATO ally bordered by volatile regions, Türkiye has sought to balance its strategic partnerships, including maintaining ties with Russia while upholding its commitments to the alliance. However, Washington’s inflexible stance during these episodes fueled a sense of mistrust in Ankara.

Trump’s Second Term: Hope or More Tension?

Trump’s new administration brings with it a sense of unpredictability that Ankara cannot ignore. While Turkish officials remain skeptical of U.S. intentions, there are signs of potential economic collaboration. Trade Minister Omer Bolat has expressed hope that the Trump administration might reduce tariffs on Turkish steel and textile exports, a move that could revitalize Türkiye’s defense and industrial sectors.

Bolat’s optimism is grounded in Türkiye’s economic ambitions. "The reduction of tariffs would not only benefit bilateral trade but also set the stage for deeper cooperation in defense and energy," Bolat remarked during a press briefing. The appreciation of the Turkish lira and gains in the Istanbul stock index following Trump’s election suggest that the financial markets share this cautious optimism.

Yet, economic gains alone cannot address the broader concerns. Ankara remains wary of Trump’s stance on key regional issues, including Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Cyprus. His administration’s previous support for Greece and the Greek Cypriot leadership at the expense of Turkish Cypriots has left lingering doubts about his commitment to impartiality in the region.

Cyprus: A Litmus Test for U.S.-Türkiye Relations

For Turkish Cypriots, the trajectory of U.S.-Türkiye relations under Trump carries significant implications. The Eastern Mediterranean remains a region of contention, with natural gas exploration and maritime boundaries fueling tensions between Türkiye and Greece, backed by the Greek Cypriot administration. 

Ankara has consistently advocated for the rights of Turkish Cypriots in these disputes, emphasizing the importance of a fair distribution of resources and recognition of their sovereignty. However, the U.S. has often sided with Greek interests, exacerbating the isolation faced by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). 

Turkish Cypriots view the skepticism in Ankara as justified, given the history of U.S. policies that have neglected their rights. A recalibration of U.S. foreign policy under Trump, one that acknowledges the legitimate concerns of both Türkiye and the TRNC, would be a welcome shift.

Regional Security: Cooperation or Confrontation?

The broader question of regional security looms large in Ankara’s calculations. Türkiye’s strategic location makes it a pivotal player in addressing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and beyond. Trump’s previous decisions, such as the abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, left Türkiye grappling with the fallout, including the resurgence of terrorist threats along its borders.

Ankara’s skepticism extends to Washington’s ambiguous stance on Kurdish groups in Syria, which Türkiye considers a national security threat. The U.S.’s continued support for the YPG, despite Türkiye’s objections, remains a sore point. Erdoğan has been vocal about the need for a coherent and collaborative approach to counterterrorism. "We expect the United States to respect Türkiye’s legitimate security concerns and to act as a true ally," Erdoğan stated in a recent address.

The Path Forward: Dialogue and Trade as Catalysts

While the challenges are formidable, Erdoğan’s invitation to Trump offers a potential pathway for rebuilding trust. Dialogue at the highest level could pave the way for addressing contentious issues, from defense procurement to regional conflicts. The emphasis on trade, as highlighted by Bolat, could serve as a foundation for broader cooperation.

Türkiye’s aspirations extend beyond economic gains. As a regional power, it seeks to assert its influence and contribute to stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. This includes advocating for a two-state solution in Cyprus, a stance that aligns with the aspirations of Turkish Cypriots for self-determination and recognition.

TCE Conclusion

The return of Donald Trump to the White House marks a pivotal moment for U.S.-Türkiye relations. Ankara’s skepticism is not without merit, given the historical strains and ongoing challenges. However, the potential for renewed dialogue and economic collaboration offers a glimmer of hope.

For Turkish Cypriots, the stakes are high. The dynamics of U.S.-Türkiye relations will shape not only the future of Cyprus but also the broader balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. As Ankara navigates this uncertain terrain, the focus must remain on fostering partnerships that respect its sovereignty and regional aspirations.

The invitation extended by Erdoğan to Trump is more than a diplomatic gesture—it is an opportunity to reset a strained relationship. Whether this leads to a new era of cooperation or further division will depend on the willingness of both leaders to address the core concerns that have defined their nations’ interactions.

References

1. Statement by Trade Minister Omer Bolat, November 2024.
2. Erdoğan’s address on regional security, October 2024.
3. Historical analysis of U.S.-Türkiye relations, NATO archives.
4. Economic data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange, November 2024.
5. Turkish Foreign Ministry statements on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, 2023-2024.